In November, the US economy added 263,000 jobs vs. 200,000 expected and the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.7%. 

A higher-than-expected week for U.S. employment may indicate that the decline in inflation is not strong enough. Accordingly, the Fed's decision to soften its key rate hike may now be in doubt. After all, the Fed was expecting a lower NFP figure. 

**How did markets react?**

The publication of the US NFP results caused a very strong reaction among traders and investors. After all, the published data turned out to be much higher than forecasts. 

As a result, the US Dollar Index has surged after hitting a 6-month low this morning. 

![Screenshot 2022-12-02 at 15.15.57.png](https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/blog.naga.com-storage/Screenshot_2022_12_02_at_15_15_57_0d23454d9c.png)
*XAU/USD*

At the same time, assets such as $GBP/USD, $EUR/USD, and $XAU/USD have begun to decline. In particular, Gold price turned south and dropped below $1,790 in the early American session. 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 2% on the day near 3.6%, weighing heavily on $XAU/USD.

![Screenshot 2022-12-02 at 15.17.03.png](https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/blog.naga.com-storage/Screenshot_2022_12_02_at_15_17_03_8dbb20f462.png)
*GBP/USD*

The US stock market greeted the news mixed. The major indices have not yet set the tone for a decline, although the Dow Jones ($DOW30) and SPX500 ($SPX500) have lost slightly since the release. 

Why does NFP affect the markets?
*NFP tracks the number of job creations in the US, excluding farmworkers primarily due to the seasonal nature of their jobs. The NFP aims to provide an insight into the employment situation that is better gauged by only including permanent job hires.* 

Today’s NFP results are the golden mean, not too hot, nor too cold. It is slow enough to keep the Fed at a 50 bps hike in December while refraining from being too depressing to hit stocks and trigger safe-haven flows.

The November NFP data surprised to the upside for the 7th time in a row and the October figure was revised higher, stressing that the US labor market continues to show signs of great resilience despite tightening financial conditions. 

So, the impressive NFP data threatens to end the recent USD selloff and delay the opinion that there has been a fundamental, dovish shift within the Fed.

**Summary**

Generally, there is a direct correlation between NFP results and the US dollar as well as other assets: 

- A better-than-expected NFP → stronger economy → stronger USD
- A worse-than-expected NFP → weaker economy → weaker USD

Today's market reaction confirms this. Also, assets like Gold and Euro that trade inversely to the US Dollar, tend to decline if NFP is better than expected, and vice versa. This is because the raging labor market could trigger even more inflation, which investors fear. 

Please consider this in your trading strategies and be careful when volatility is high 📊



November’s NFP Results: Payrolls Increased 263K, Better Than Expected

In November, the US economy added 263,000 jobs vs. 200,000 expected and the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.7%. 


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Investor optimism prevailed this past week as equity markets continued their (bear market) rally 📈 However, upcoming economic events could change the situation radically. 

Here are this week's major economic events that need focus: 

🔺 ISM Manufacturing PMI 🇺🇸

🔺 JOLTS Job Openings 🇺🇸

🔺 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 🇺🇸

🔺 FOMC Statement, Rate and Press Conference 🇺🇸

🔺 BoE Monetary Policy Statement, Votes and Official Bank Rate 🇬🇧

🔺 ISM Services PMI  🇺🇸

🔺 Unemployment Rate and NFP  🇺🇸

👀 Let's dive into a weekly review of economic events to improve the trading experience!

## ISM Manufacturing PMI – Tuesday, November 1st

📅 The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 16:00 (GMT+3) on Tuesday, November 1. 

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI.

**Asset(s) Affected:** of $USD and $US Stocks 🇺🇸

**Why is this event important?**

Investors can better understand the national economic patterns and conditions by tracking the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. For example, in response to higher corporate earnings, investors expect a bullish stock market as the index goes up.

📈 If the released PMI number is better than the previous number and higher than the forecasted number, the US dollar tends to rally.

📉 If the PMI is lower than the previous period, it is a negative signal for the dollar and the stock market. 

## JOLTS Job Openings – Tuesday, November 1st

📅 On Tuesday, November 1, the JOLTS Job Openings will be released at 16:00 (GMT+3).

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) tells us how many job openings there are each month, how many workers were hired, how many quit their job, how many were laid off, and how many experienced other separations (which includes worker deaths).

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

The vacancies data gauges labor demand, while the number of quits, or voluntary separations, and their rate help to measure labor force turnover. This is used for investors and economists to assess manufacturing activity as well as the state of affairs in other areas. 

📈 Typically, any increase in job openings is good for the United States economy, and therefore you might expect United States stock indices to increase and where this is also good for the US dollar.

📉 However, when we see that job openings are lower, this would be bad for the United States economy and also bad for the US stock markets and the United States dollar.

## ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Wednesday, November, 2nd

📅 On Wednesday, November 2, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 14:15 (GMT +3). 

The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly report of economic data that tracks the level of nonfarm private employment in the U.S.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

NFP releases have a general tendency to cause large movements in the financial markets. If the Fed decides to lower interest rates to combat high unemployment, it reduces demand for the dollar, causing it's the dollar's price to fall.

At the same time, an increase in the key rate often leads to an increase in demand for the national currency, but negatively affects the stock market. 

## FOMC Statement, Rate, and Press Conference – Wednesday, November, 2nd

📅 The FOMC Statement, Rate, and Press Conference will be held on Wednesday, November 2.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook, and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

The FOMC meeting is usually considered the most important date on any traders' calendar, for one overriding reason: interest rates. Using a trio of policy tools, the FOMC can raise or lower the federal funds rate in the US.

## BoE Monetary Policy Statement, Votes and Official Bank Rate – Thursday, November, 3rd

📅 The Core PCE Price Index will be released on Thursday, November 3 at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy contains the key points about the economic policy of the main regulator of the country. The forthcoming statement will also contain information on the updated interest rate. 

**Asset(s) Affected:** $GBP and $FTSE100 🇬🇧

**Why is this event important?**

The announcement of an interest rate change has a significant impact on the stock and currency markets. 

In particular, a rate hike could support the national currency and have a negative impact on stocks in the UK. At the same time, a decrease, or retention of the key rate could provoke a rally in British equities, but lead to a decline in the pound. 

## ISM Services PMI – Thursday, November, 3rd

📅 The ISM Services PMI will be released on Thursday, November 3 at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The ISM manufacturing index or PMI measures the change in production levels across the U.S. economy from month to month. The report is released on the first business day of each month. Thus, it is one of the earliest indicators of economic activity that investors and business people get regularly.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

📈 If the released PMI number is better than the previous number and higher than the forecasted number, the US dollar tends to rally.

📉 If the PMI is lower than the previous period, it is a negative signal for the dollar and the stock market. 

## Unemployment Rate and NFP – Friday, November, 4th

📅 The Unemployment Rate and NFP will be released on Friday, November 4 at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The nonfarm payroll (NFP) report is a key economic indicator for the United States and represents the total number of paid workers in the U.S. excluding those employed by farms, the federal government, private households, and nonprofit organizations.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

📈 A higher payroll figure is generally good for the U.S. economy citing more job additions and more robust economic growth. Any release above that figure or the estimated consensus will help to fuel U.S. dollar gains.

📉 A lower employment picture is negative for the world’s largest economy and the greenback.

**That's it for this week!** 👋


Check out the top 7 economic events happening this week that you need to know to plan and give your trading strategy a kickstart to thinking ahead for the week! Ready today on the NAGA Blog.

Top 7 Economic Events Happening This Week | October 31 – November 4 | NAGA Blog

Find out here about the 7 most important economic events of the coming week by betting on dependent assets

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The Top 7 Economic Events of This Week

Tech giants under the earnings microscope! This week, the world’s largest tech companies all report their September-quarter financial results. Every one of these companies reports results in a three-day span, from Tuesday to Thursday. Therefore, upcoming earnings reports may cause increased volatility in the stock market. 

This article will help you get informed in order to build your trading and investing strategy during such an important period. 

## What are Earnings?

A quarterly earnings report is a quarterly filing made by public companies to report their performance. Earnings reports include items such as net income, earnings per share, earnings from continuing operations, and net sales. 

By analyzing quarterly earnings reports, investors can begin to gauge the financial health of the company and determine whether it deserves their investment. This week we will see such reports from the big tech giants for Q3 2022. 

## Why is it so important for investors and traders? 

It will be the last full read on the sector’s fundamental performance before the end of the year, and the wave of reports could determine the next swing in stock prices. The tech sector continues to face fierce headwinds from the strong dollar, softening consumer spending, rising interest rates, stubbornly high inflation, and a potential recession. 

The market is yearning for some hint that the worst is over, but don’t hold your breath.

## Big Tech Earnings To Watch 

This week we expect the biggest global tech companies to report third-quarter earnings in the week to come: Alphabet ($GOOGL), Twitter ($TWTR) and Microsoft ($MSFT) on Tuesday; Meta ($FB) on Wednesday; Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) on Thursday. 

But could Q3 earnings provide the pivot they need to recover? Let's find out more about this! 

### Meta ($FB)

Meta will release its 3rd quarter results on Wednesday, 26 October. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.86 (59 cents less than last quarter), and revenue is estimated at $27.42 billion, which is also less than in the previous period.

Meta Platforms Inc.’s quarterly report will show us whether its first-ever revenue decline last quarter will actually be the first of many. Meta may join a chorus of social media companies lamenting the ongoing effects of Apple Inc.’s privacy changes, which made it harder for them to track your online activity and tailor ads specifically for you. 

### Alphabet ($GOOG)

Google parent Alphabet will round out the slate of mega-cap tech reports due in Tuesday’s after-hours period. Shares of the tech giant have tumbled over 30% in the past year, accelerating declines since August alongside many of its tech peers.

Nevertheless, the company plans to show increased profits and slightly reduced EPS compared to the previous quarter. The results may turn out to be mixed. 

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts see the stock as a “Strong Buy” ahead of the Q3 report.

### Microsoft ($MSFT)

Microsoft is due to post its quarterly earnings update after the market closes on Tuesday. Shares of the software giant have declined about 30% in 2022, outpacing declines in broader indices and accelerating to the downside since the summer in particular. 

Since August, analysts have reeled in estimates significantly, with EPS and revenue estimates revised downward. The company has also cut a significant number of staff since that point, reportedly laying off 1,000 employees.

### Twitter ($TWTR)

Twitter, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on October 25th. But the upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. According to analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.21. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $-0.7.

This could be one of the worst numbers in the past year, caused in part by the legal battle with Elon Musk. 

### Apple ($AAPL)

Apple will release its 3rd quarter results on Wednesday, 26 October. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.86 (59 cents less than last quarter), and revenue is estimated at $27.42 billion, which is also less than in the previous period.

Apple will report on Thursday of next week, giving investors a look at the health of consumer spending. Analysts will track iPhone sales data closely and will watch Apple’s bottom line to see if the company’s year-over-year earnings per share shrink for the first time in two years.

### Amazon ($AMZN)

Seattle-based retail giant Amazon will update investors on its quarterly performance after the market close on Thursday. In the 90 days prior to the earnings release, consensus EPS estimates have been revised down 35 times.

Nevertheless, looking back at the firm’s last earnings report, shares of Amazon marked a double-digit gain on the day after announcing its Q2 results. Financial figures were bolstered by a surge in net AWS sales from $14.8B in Q2 2021 to $19.74B in Q2 of 2022.

This time around, the company may also increase EPS to $0.20 and revenue to $127.57 billion.  This could again have a positive effect on the share price immediately after the data is released. 

## Conclusion

All of the above and many other company shares are available on NAGA. This means you can improve your trading experience and explore updated trading strategies with upcoming earnings reports in mind. 

## Summary

- This week, the world’s largest tech companies all report their September-quarter financial results.
- Alphabet ($GOOGL), Twitter ($TWTR), Microsoft ($MSFT), Meta ($FB), Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) expect the biggest global tech companies to report third-quarter earnings. 
- It will be the last full read on the sector’s fundamental performance before the end of the year, and the wave of reports could determine the next swing in stock prices.

* The earning statement dates mentioned are provisional. They are subject to change at the discretion of the company.


Big Tech Earnings To Watch This Week | October 24 – 28

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⚡ Compared to last week’s sea of red, investors appear a lot more optimistic this week. However, there are several key economic events ahead, which can make adjustments to the market situation. 

➡ EU and the UK Manufacturing & Service PMI 🇬🇧🇪🇺

➡ US Consumer Confidence 🇺🇸

➡ ECB Main Refinancing Rate, statement and Rate 🇪🇺

➡ BOJ Monetary Policy Report and Conference 🇯🇵

➡ Core PCE Price Index 🇺🇸

👀 Let's dive into a weekly review of economic events to improve the trading experience!

## The Euro Zone and the UK Manufacturing & Service PMI – Monday, October, 24th

📅 The Euro Zone and the UK Manufacturing & Service PMI will be released from 10:15 to 11:30 (GMT+3) on Monday, October 24. 

Purchasing Managers’ Index or PMI is an important economic indicator in the EU and the UK. The index shows trends in both the manufacturing and services sector.

**Asset(s) Affected:** of $GBP, $EUR, $FTSE100, $DAX and $CAC40 🇬🇧🇪🇺

**Why is this event important?**

It helps analysts and economists to correctly anticipate changing economic trends in official data series such as gross domestic products (GDP), industrial production, employment, and inflation.

Accordingly, the growth or decline of the index affects the quotations of currencies and stock indices. Therefore, traders and investors should consider the data in their trading strategy. 

📈 If PMI in Europe and Britain exceed forecasts and stays above 50, it might be a positive signal for the stock market and national currencies ($EUR and $GBP).

📉 If the PMI in Europe and Britain underperforms forecasts and declines, it could have a negative impact on stocks in the $DAX, $FTSE100 and $CAC40, as well as on national currencies. 

## The US Consumer Confidence – Tuesday, October, 25th

📅 On Tuesday, October 25, the US Consumer Confidence will be released at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

When confidence is trending down, consumers save more than they are spending, indicating the economy is in trouble or contracting further. Essentially, the more confident people feel about the stability of their incomes, the more likely they are to maintain or increase their spending patterns.

📈 The strong report may provide additional support to the American currency, as healthy consumer activity provides the Fed with an opportunity to raise the rates aggressively.

📉 A declining indicator could negatively affect the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market. 

## ECB Main Refinancing Rate, statement, and Rate – Thursday, October, 27th

📅 On Thursday, October 27, the ECB Main Refinancing Rate, statement, and Rate will be released at 15:15 – 15:45 (GMT +3). 

The refinancing rate and the ECB key rate are the main indicators of monetary policy in the European Union. They depend on inflation and other macroeconomic factors, determining the rate for all participants of the European financial markets. 

**Asset(s) Affected:** $EUR and $Euro Indices  🇪🇺

**Why is this event important?**

❗ On this day, we can hear the key messages about the subsequent monetary policy, the potential of the key rate increase and the refinancing rate from the European Central Bank (ECB). 

## BOJ Monetary Policy Report and Conference – Friday, October, 28th

📅 The BOJ Monetary Policy Report and Conference will be held on Friday, October 28.

BOJ Monetary policy is the macroeconomic policy laid down by the Japan central bank. It involves management of money supply and interest rate and is the demand side economic policy used by the government of a country to achieve macroeconomic objectives like inflation, consumption, growth, and liquidity.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $JPY and $NIKKEI225 🇯🇵

**Why is this event important?**

At the upcoming BoJ conference, we will learn about the regulator's upcoming plans to change or maintain the current monetary policy. This is very important for the yen and the Japanese stock market. 

❗ Despite inflation trending near eight-year highs, the Bank of Japan has given no indication that it plans to raise interest rates from record lows in the near-term. But further declines in the yen may spark more intervention in currency markets by the government, as seen in late-September.

## Core PCE Price Index – Friday, October, 28th

📅 The Core PCE Price Index will be released on Friday, October 28 at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The Core PCE Price Index is defined as personal consumption expenditure prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends.

**Asset(s) Affected:** $US Dollar and $US Stocks 🇺🇸 

**Why is this event important?**

PCE reveals how much households spend on immediate consumption versus saving for the future. Higher consumption levels translate into greater GDP growth in the short term. On the other hand, a higher savings rate is good for long-term economic health.

❗ A rising Core PCE Price Index also considered as a measure of economic growth: while personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the $USD.

**That's it for this week!**


Check out the top 5 economic events happening this week that you need to know to plan and give your trading strategy a kickstart to thinking ahead for the week! Ready today on the NAGA Blog.

Top 5 Economic Events Happening This Week | October 24 – 28 | NAGA Blog

Find out here about the 5 most important economic events of the coming week by betting on dependent assets

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